With the UK technically in recession after two successive quarters of falling GDP, including a worse-than expected fourth quarter of 2023 as household reined in Christmas expenditure in response to rising retail prices and borrowing costs, it doesn’t seem like the most optimistic time for commercial print, often seen as a bellwether of the economy.

But doom and gloom is very much not on the cards for the UK’s trade print sector, where investment continues and ambitious growth targets are still being set. The positive attitude is perhaps

best exemplified by Where The Trade Buys’ (WTTB) Gary Peeling, who says, ‘Fear can be paralysing for businesses and being afraid can have a knock-on effect on demand and growth.

‘Reacting less and acting more will be our watchwords, going forward; you can’t wait around for bad – or good – fortune, both come and go.’

Richard Campbell, the new MD at Northside Graphics, which runs the TradeDigitalPrint websites for UK and Ireland, sees it as more of the same. ‘The biggest challenge to our business is the same one as it’s always been, the macro environment, which is challenging in both of the markets in which we operate, UK and Ireland,’ he says.

‘Costs are going up and customer expectations also continue to grow. So we are doing what we have always done; keeping a keen eye on pricing to make sure our customers are getting really good value.’

A focus on value and competitive pricing is arguably business as usual for the competitive trade sector, but Tradeprint’s Anthony Rowell alludes to ‘pivotal issues’ affecting both printer and their customers:

‘The rapid development in both automation and digital printing methods demands that companies remain well-informed about technological progress to maintain their market edge. Additionally, ongoing disruptions in supply chains are impacting the availability and cost of essential materials.

‘This is further intensified by increasing environmental issues. The demand for sustainable and eco-credible printing solutions is escalating, driven by both regulatory bodies and consumer preferences. Moreover, there is a shift in customer expectations, with an emphasis on quicker delivery times, bespoke products, and superior quality at competitive rates.’

It’s also the case that the political maxim ‘never waste a good crisis’ applies here. Steve Wenlock at Flexpress notes that ‘every situation presents opportunities, as well as threats, so we just work harder to exploit whatever opportunities may be present’, while Mr Peeling agrees and summarises his call to action thus: ‘Don’t wait for the environment to be perfect, it never is’.

Why go trade?

That sounds like a pretty comprehensive description of the issues facing all printers, so what is the trade printers’ pitch? Do current circumstances merit altering the proposition, or merely strengthen existing reasons for looking outside your own factory to get things printed?

Mr Wenlock feels it bolsters the existing rationale, arguing, ‘Financial pressures and political uncertainty are making a lot of smaller printers ever more cautious about investing in expensive equipment to fulfil occasional orders. It makes far more sense, particularly now, to outsource to a capable and trustworthy trade printer that can produce what you need reliably and cost-effectively.’

Mr Campbell concurs, suggesting that this is already happening: ‘Our sales continue to grow on our trade sites, which indicates where the industry is going in terms of buying habits and the move to online. We see a growing number of printers choosing to use us rather than continue trying to produce the work themselves or get someone locally to produce it.’

An automated Müller Martini binding and trimming line supports book-of-one production at WTTB.

Macauley Hardeman of Route 1 adds, ‘We don’t believe these reasons for using a trade supplier will fundamentally change, although we are seeing an increasing number of partners focusing more on customer-facing aspects of their operations,’ suggesting that at least some printers are prioritising winning business over the act of producing it.

Mr Peeling backs that view too, saying, ‘Trade printers have always provided capabilities, solutions and expertise that would necessitate several years of internal development and significant capital investment for companies to establish [themselves].’ ‘The invaluable expertise we collectively bring to the table is pivotal. Through outsourcing, trade resellers can focus their time and effort on cultivating closer relationships with key customers and identifying project streams that yield optimal margins or demonstrate strong demand,’ he adds.

For Mr Rowell, it’s about understanding customers’ needs and motivations. ‘We recognise that print projects aren’t ‘widgets’– they have meaning and applications and are often an important driver to support our customers growth with a human touch,’ he says.

To back up their arguments and deliver what they promise, our trade printers are continuing to invest in a variety of directions. At Tradeprint this means technology – advanced printing techniques, automation and using AI to boost efficiency and quality – as well as expanding the range of services and product catalogue to include more customised products, self-serve design tools, an ‘amazing’ range of prepress and design options, plus a Resource Hub and sustainable solutions, according to Mr Rowell, who also points to the company’s buying strength as part of the Cimpress group. Direct connection with clients’ e-commerce via API is also offered, something that Solopress has also done, reducing transactional costs and admin overhead.

At WTTB, a 2024 goal is to overhaul the online pricing engine for ‘core’ categories, in order to enable customers to get an immediate price on most specifications of most key products. ‘First often secures the order, this new pricing engine will mean fewer delays waiting for a bespoke estimate,’ explains Mr Peeling.

Improving the user experience is also central to Northside’s plans, with both the UK and Ireland trade websites having recently been re-launched with a ‘completely different look and feel’, according to Mr Campbell. Further products recently added include labels on a roll, a bespoke products service and 13 same-day delivery products, with a ‘large pipeline’ of further new products to come in 2024.

The focus at Route 1 is very much on books, following the acquisition and integration of Kingsbury Press into the Wath-Upon-Dearne production site. ‘We’ve recently rolled out a significant expansion to our perfect bound book range, with new stock options and hardcover variants. Books will continue to be our main focus, so you can expect to see the introduction of additional binding types, innovative embellishment options, and much more throughout the year,’ confirms Mr Hardeman.

The South Yorkshire production capability will no doubt be bolstered by the addition of the company’s second Landa S10P B1 digital press, scheduled for the spring of 2024. Route 1 probably outscores just about everyone in terms of spend, too, with the Landa being part of a £5 million planned investment; further details of this are expected to be announced later in 2024.

Mr Wenlock says, ‘For us, it’s less about introducing new products and more about improving what we already do,’ but that still requires investment. He says £500,000 has already been spent this year, with a highlight being the purchase of a Duplo DuSense DDC8000 B2 digital embellishment press, which will enable ‘sensory spot UV and metallic foils to be applied to a greater range of products, ‘more cost-effectively and faster than ever’.

No drupa delay

It looks like the imminent drupa isn’t causing any delay to investment plans, though its influence on the market is undeniable. ‘We are always looking three to four years down the line, so drupa 2024 will probably not change our plans but may help to inform us better,’ opines Mr Campbell. Mr Rowell is enthusiastic about the return of the event, noting, ‘I think the anticipation of new technology announcements presented at the event will significantly shape future investment strategies in our amazing sector’.

At WTTB there’s no hanging around for possible announcements, it’s a case of buying available kit as and when it’s justified. Mr Peeling gives the example of Müller Martini PUR and case-binding equipment installed in September 2023, which he says supports one-book publication through to offset runs and operates with zero makeready thanks to the use of job barcodes in the trim area of the books.

Summarising the outlook, Route 1’s Mr Hardeman says, ‘We have entered 2024 with cautious optimism. No doubt there will be some big challenge that hits us all this year but the one thing we’re confident in is the amazing ability of UK businesses to adapt and make it work!’.

Tradeprint sees opportunities across the board, from direct mail to promotional and gift offerings to exhibition graphics, plus work that should arise from the expected general election, whenever it comes. ‘We think there’s some great opportunities for growth out there and we are super-determined to grow in a sustainable, profitable way,’ enthuses Mr Rowell.

Mr Campbell at Northside perhaps puts it most succinctly for everyone: ‘2024 is about continuing to do what we have always done while offering an even bigger range of products and services to our customers.’

If you’re not already using trade services to benefit from their equipment and expertise, it’s surely worth taking a look – there’s nothing to lose and potentially a lot to gain.

This article was first published in the February/March 2024 issue of Digital Printer, which you can read online here. 

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TCW offers a broad range of direct mail and wide-format printing services across its two sites and already has an HP PageWide web-fed inkjet for high volume variable data mailing work. The company says new investment will strengthen its capacity to deliver high-volume personalised mailing projects for the financial and retail sectors. By transferring previously litho-printed runs to inkjet, TCW will be able to benefit from enhanced automation, productivity and flexibility. This will particularly support the production of gaming sleeves for point-of-sale applications.

The Canon press is expected to provide reliable high-speed inkjet printing with quality to rival that of offset, thanks to its 1200dpi native resolution printheads and  colour management software, plus the ability to print consistently on a range of coated and uncoated media. The ink and printhead combination is claimed by Canon to achieve 91% reproduction of Pantone spot colours, verified by Fogra.

A further consideration when selecting the iX3200 was the sustainability credentials of the device, which include lower power consumption per page printed and the use of water-based ink with a very high de-inkability rating.

Tom Lipman, director, TCW Solutions, commented, ‘We’re delighted to continue working with Canon. Over the years, we’ve had all types of different toner-based machines but have never known reliability like that of the VarioPrint iX. As one of the fastest print providers in the market, we’re excited for the new device to push us even further to offer our customers bespoke high-quality products with even more competitive turnaround times.’

Stuart Rising, head of commercial print at Canon UK & Ireland, added, ‘We’re excited for our relationship with TCW solutions to develop. The installation of the VarioPrint iX will enable the business to drive growth as it diversifies its offering for a variety of markets, while ensuring quality and efficiency remain at the core of what they do.’

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Compass Business Finance operates both as a broker and a finance company. Specialising in manufacturing, specifically in print and packaging, construction and precision engineering, its teams have ongoing relationships with a variety of funders.

‘I’m excited to be moving into a new phase of my career with Compass, it’s a perfect fit for me to broaden my horizons in the corporate space. It is an entrepreneurial and ambitious company, with a great team. Compass has a wide scope, a flexible approach to finance and I like their ethos,’ commented Mr Pocock, ‘I’d also like to thank Close Brothers for the support and opportunities I was afforded during my time there.’

Jamie Nelson, director of Compass Business Finance, said, ‘Jordan will be a fantastic asset to the team, his experience will allow him to hit the ground running and enable us to offer increased support to our markets. Compass has a relational approach to finance, enabling us to bring our customers the best possible solutions; Jordan is a natural fit.’

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‘May you live in interesting times’ is an apocryphal Chinese saying that is supposedly meant more as curse than blessing. But whoever said it, no one can deny that these are interesting times, even if not in a good way. The spiralling costs of energy, driven by supply and distribution capacity shortages originating in the pandemic lockdown periods, then exacerbated by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the closing and possible sabotage of a major pipeline for Russian gas into Europe have fed a perfect storm, coming on top of supply chain issues and skills and labour shortages left over from the Covid-19 pandemic. In the face of reports circulating about companies coming to the end of fixed-price energy supply contracts facing five or six-fold increases that would simply drive many out of business, the UK Government announced in late September that it would fund an energy price cap for business similar to the one announced earlier that month for consumers.

One critical difference, however, is that while consumers get a two-year price cap, businesses have so far been promised support for only six months, with a review planned after three months. While few presently foresee a reliable resolution to the issues by then, it is at least a breathing space to consider the options and to put plans in place for what may ultimately be a deferred rather than cancelled price hike – on top of the effective doubling of prices since this time last year.

Director Mark Nelson of Compass Business Finance comments, ‘The cap will make a significant difference in the short term, but people shouldn’t be planning less than six months in advance. It is good news but it’s still a massive concern for six months’ time – or three months, when it’s to be reviewed – some might choose to close their doors on the basis of the uncertainty. ‘However, this does give some time to decide and perhaps restructure. No one is shutting their doors yet because of prices and the mindset is to find a solution, though things are moving so fast that there’s been no time to recognise or feel the impact, as most have yet to reach the end of their fixed price agreements.

Ultimately print prices will have to move but there’s concern that this will push demand down,’ he adds, noting that the summer period had been generally buoyant. Ian Hamilton, area sales manager and renewable energy specialist at Close Brothers Asset Finance, also urges swift action.

‘Companies should review their current energy costs as soon as they can. I have seen estimates for variable electricity prices recently of between 60 and 102p per kWh, and with current fixed rates finishing this could lead to a significant increase on their current deals. Current forecasts suggest they could rise further, with no guarantee they will revert to former levels. ‘Have companies budgeted for such as increase? Are they able to pass these price increases on to their customers? Many commercial fixed rate deals are expiring on 1 October but fortunately the government has stepped in with a six month support package. This will give customers breathing space to analyse where their main energy costs are coming from and what future costs might look like, even if they are on extended fixed rate deals.’

Two paths you can go by Essentially, there are two threads that printers can tackle: the first is to reduce energy costs by cutting consumption through efficiency measures and/or installing their own local power generation capacity; the second is to refinance to cope with the increased bills. And unlike physical paths, you can take them both at once.

 ‘Looking to the future, business owners would do well to consider renewable energy products such as solar PV, LED lighting and CHP (combined heat and power) engines to reduce future costs over the long-term,’ says Mr Hamilton, who adds that Close Brothers has for a long time helped finance such measures, which as well as providing some insulation from price shocks also represent long-term solutions. He comments, ‘Unsurprisingly, interest has grown hugely in recent weeks and we are supporting existing customers, especially the high energy users, and are being proactive in working with them on appropriate solutions,’ and goes on to again urge timely action.

‘The likelihood is interest will only increase in the coming weeks and months, and with pressure on installers and the product supply chain, for example solar panels, we would urge businesses to take steps sooner rather than later.’

Solar power, like any single-source renewable, isn’t a panacea, being both seasonal and affected by day-to-day weather conditions, but large rooftop arrays can provide a considerable proportion of the power requirement even on overcast days, and every kilowatt-hour you don’t have to pay for is going to help both your business and the environment. If you generate more than you need, you may also benefit from an export tariff to sell it to the grid. Compass has also been active in supporting sustainable energy measures. Mr Nelson reports that for a period there was government support for anaerobic digestion biogas generation which was popular, but the tariffs were dropped. He advises that even putting solar panels on rented roofs is worth doing as the installation can pay for itself, even if the landlord winds up keeping the panels. As energy prices rise, the payback period on initiatives like this will only shorten, too.

Mr Hamilton says, ‘We work with firms, understanding their usage and costs, and by working with trusted suppliers and installers, demonstrate the savings benefits of installing renewable assets. Finance is available up to seven years, which helps any initial capital outlay and spreads the costs. We can also tailor the finance terms to match seasonal income, if required.’ 

Some of the lessons and government responses from the Covid-19 pandemic may also have been blessings in disguise, even if rather small ones compared to the scale of the impact on businesses and lives, suggests Mr Nelson.

‘We saw a resurgence in late 2020 and early 2021 with the CBILS investment support. Firms got through the shock and cash need, were able to restructure and rationalise so they could invest in diversification.’

Compass head of marketing Sarah Lees also noted a focus on sustainability attaching to those investment, with companies replacing two machines with one more productive one and looking into energy efficiency, ‘which will stand them in good stead,’ she observes. The CBILS loans, which were government-backed to 80% of their value, were due to end in December 2020 but because they attached eligibility conditions to delivery and installation, had to be extended to March 2021 because of supply chain issues. That scheme has well and truly finished now but some of the investment incentives from that period are still in place. ‘The Annual Investment Allowance remains at the higher rate of £1 million per year, tax free, indefinitely,’

Ms Lees says, adding that the planned corporation tax increase from 19% to 25% has been cancelled, though since that’s levied on profits it’s perhaps less of an immediate help. It also looks as though the pandemic Super Deduction, introduced in March 2021, which granted 130% capital allowance on qualifying equipment, and 50% first year allowance on special rate assets, will end as planned on 31 March 2023, but that still leaves some months to invest, for those who can. Outside of these measures, print industry-focused finance specialists can help to optimise the other outgoings to improve cashflow and increase flexibility. ‘We can help with cash reserves by reviewing finances,’ explains Mr Nelson. ‘If Firms are willing to share the information, we can look into the whole business and achieve savings via restructuring. We’ve seen improvements in invoicing and management of cash. Every business is different, and every one adapts to the market. We’ve been through shutdown and we know it’s not the solution.’

Mr Hamilton adds, ‘We also specialise in asset refinance and debt restructure, affording the potential opportunity to help businesses reduce monthly asset finance commitments to deliver an improved cash flow position which can prove to be a powerful tool in challenging times.’ Lobbying for ongoing support ‘Challenging times’ is perhaps something of an understatement, with the government seemingly at loggerheads with the Bank of England at the time of writing.

Ian Hamilton – no guarantee prices will revert to
former levels

This is why industry bodies including the BPIF and IPIA are working together to lobby government for extended support on the basis of the large number of SMEs in print surviving on thin margins, and the fact that it is an energy-intensive business. To support an application for ‘vulnerable industry’ status, which would gain longer-lasting government help, the BPIF is running a survey online, in which printers may provide figures – anonymously and in confidence – that illustrate the effect of the energy price rises on the viability of their businesses.

Pending any such classification and offer of further assistance by the government, we can only agree with Mr Nelson: ‘Everyone would have loved more than six months’ support, but no one knows where we’ll be then. The government has bought some time.’ And as a fictional wizard said, all we must decide is what to do with the time given us.

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The Business Finance Council is jointly chaired by the BEIS Secretary of State, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury and the Minister for Small Business, Consumers and Labour Markets. Its members include major high street lenders and providers of alternative finance, UK Finance and the Finance and Leasing Association, the British Business Bank and business representative organisations.

The Council collaborated with finance providers, business organisations and government to identify areas that are significant in ensuring that the SME finance market works effectively, drawing up five high-level commitments from these.

The five pledges in the Charter, to which Compass has detailed its specific commitment, are:

• We’re open for business and ready to lend

• We’ll help you build back better after Covid-19

• We’ll support your application and signpost other options if needed

• We’ll treat you fairly at all times

• We’ll work with the government-owned British Business Bank to support SMEs.

Mark Nelson, director of Compass, commented, ‘Working in collaboration with the government and other finance providers is key to being able to offer the best possible support to the market. Signing up to the Charter reaffirms the commitment we have to our customers, to always do our best for them.’

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The all-digital print house was established in the 1990s and currently employs seven people, having taken on three who had lost jobs at other printers due to the pandemic. It serves two distinct markets, garden centres and outdoor living stores, and personalised / short-run playing and game cards, which it sells online. While the former market is seasonal and has been affected to some extent by the pandemic, the latter has been booming.

‘The playing cards are now 80 to 90% of our business; a year ago it was 25 – 30% and that’s not just because of a drop in the gardens centres work,’ said managing director Ed Oakes. He added, ‘People are spending more time at home, and we’ve picked up two or three customers who sell via Amazon.’

The cards produced at Spingold range from standard playing cards, which are made with a high quality plasticised finish (though not sold into the casino market), to educational, ‘top trumps’ and tarot cards. Print runs can be anything from one set to a few thousand. Printing of the cards is done on a Ricoh Pro C7100 or either of two Xerox Versant 180 sheet-fed toner presses, one of which was added during the lockdown period. ‘We bought the new die-cutter for this,’ said Mr Oakes, adding, ‘We had the first Duplo rotary die-cutter in the UK, about four years ago, and been very pleased with it but needed to up the work rate. As the flexible dies go with the make of machine it made sense to get another Duplo.’

The involvement with the New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership came about as result of the new hires Spingold made from other local print businesses that had made staff redundant. ‘Two of the employees we added in September/October had worked at a company which had applied for it, so I looked into it as a way to future-proof the business,’ explained Mr Oakes. The fund provided a grant of 40% of the £52,000 purchase price of the die-cutter, £20,800, leaving Spingold to pay the balance.

‘We have steered away from short-term choices in order to concentrate on long-term business-supporting moves, to make sure that existing staff are kept and that new staff aren’t just a short-term thing,’ said Mr Oakes.

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The videos, which feature CMYUK finance director Jon Price, explain the many benefits of CBILS and aim to clear up a number of misconceptions. 

‘I have been fielding multiple calls about CBILS and what struck me is how little business owners understand about the reach of the scheme and how it can be applied to their own particular circumstances,’ Mr Price explained. ‘In challenging times I always say that businesses need to invest. CBILS provides the perfect platform, it is the most powerful, flexible, low-cost finance that you’ll ever have access to.’

The videos vary between one and two minutes in length and cover topics including:

• CBILS – an investment opportunity not to be missed CBILS has now been extended to include asset finance
• CBILS – new truths, old misconceptions The biggest misconception is that you can only have one CBILS loan or facility. 
• CBILS – enabling investment without increasing overheads How the scheme can be used to refinance existing assets, or buy new and/or second-hand equipment
• CBILS – examples of the best business loans you will ever receive Stop worrying about the capital cost and look at the impact on your business
• CBILS – consolidating investment towards an industrial infrastructure How to get more out of less
• CBILS – what do I need to do now and how long does it take? How CMYUK can expertly help you through the process 

‘This is the single most exciting opportunity in Asset Finance that I’ve come across, which is why I want customers to embrace it,’ Mr Price concluded. ‘The government has said CBILS will end in September, so if you have a business, think about bringing your investment plans forward as it would be deeply unfortunate not to take advantage of this scheme.’

Full details of CBILS can be found here.

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The action plan, which ‘may see plant closures’, calls for the unprofitable lines, which the company says generate an annual net loss of some €50 million, to cease production by the end of 2020 at the latest. It is not clear what ongoing support will be offered to customers with the discontinued models; the Primefire had been sold in ‘every continent except Africa’, according to Montserrat Piedro-Insa, head of the company’s digital print operation, and along with the Landa S10 and Inca Onset M/Fujifilm Acuity B1, was one of very few B1 general-purpose digital presses so far to have active working installations. According to Heidelberg’s statement, ‘the market for the Primefire 106 product has grown much more slowly than anticipated because of the difficult industry and market environment’.

The action plan is expected to generate one-off costs of some €300 million and will affect this year’s figures which are expected to be below last year’s sales of €2.49 billion. Heidelberg has also moved to improve its liquidity by transferring €375 million from its pension trust fund and repurchasing a €150 million high yield bond. These measures will have ‘no negative impact on existing and future pension entitlements’, according to Heidelberg’s statement.

‘This marks a milestone for Heidelberg. At a single stroke, we are freeing ourselves from the severe debt burden and, at the same time, can systematically implement the requisite operational realignment within the next 18 months,’ said Marcus A. Wassenberg, Heidelberg’s chief financial officer. ‘This will make us crisis-proof in the short term and significantly improve profitability so that we can press ahead with our digital realignment.’

The continuing ‘digitalisation’ of its business, in addition to renewed focus on the profitable parts of its offset portfolio will see continuing emphasis on subscription services and software, including the AI-driven technical support capability and user community reported in Digital Printer December 2019/January 2020. This is based on Heidelberg’s years of gathering machine data from 15,000 sites and some 50 million jobs, though this is almost exclusively in offset printing rather than digital. From this the company is developing Performance Advisor Technology, an automated consultant that uses AI techniques to analyse data from some 5000 machines, spot patterns, suggest solutions or improvements and then refine its results according to the feedback generated. According to Tom Oelsner, head of digital innovation, the system, which is in the training/texting phase now is ‘in kindergarten but learning fast’.

The company’s Versafire line of SRA3 sheet-fed toner presses (Ricoh print engines with Heidelberg DFEs and surrounding software) is believed to be secure. New features that were to have been debuted at drupa include the ability to cluster presses for ‘smart and automated’ load balancing and resilience, with a view to achieving ‘industrial digital production’ via multiple toner presses, with the benefits of proven quality and media flexibility, rather than customers moving to high-speed inkjet, a sector in which Heidelberg does not currently have a product, though Ms Piedro-Insa did refer to ‘strengthening’ the relationship with Ricoh, which does. The Versafire range will also gain expanded inline finishing options for creasing, folding and saddle-stitching booklets of up to 120 pages and across a range of weights.

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As part of the 2020 Budget Rishi Sunak announced that CBILS will temporarily replace the Enterprise Finance Guarantee (EFG).

As an accredited lender under the British Business Bank’s EFG programme, Compass Business finance will be offering asset finance via CBILS to smaller businesses, predominantly in the manufacturing sector.

CBILS provides lenders with a Government-backed guarantee for up to 80% of the outstanding balance of eligible facilities, potentially enabling a ‘no’ credit decision from a lender to become a ‘yes’. It supports facilities of between £1,000 and £1.2m to smaller businesses that are viable but unable to obtain finance from their lender due to having inadequate security to meet the lender’s normal credit requirements.

Director Mark Nelson explained, ‘These are unprecedented times and amid the uncertainty, CBILS is one way in which we can extend finance to companies who may not otherwise have the required security. There are also many other finance options available to businesses who may need to release additional funds at this time or over the coming months.’

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According to the survey, 34% of printers increased output in quarter, driven in part by election-related activity, while 38% held steady and 28% saw a decline, giving a net balance of +6, just above than the +5 recorded for the previous quarter (itself the worst Q3 for three years), and better than the +2 predicted for the period. After wildly inaccurate forecasts for Q2 and Q3 2018, the Q4 one was closer to the mark and the expectation for the first quarter of 2020 is growth in output for 39%, no change for 37% and 24% expecting a reduction, a net balance of +15, nearly as high as for the same quarter last year.

The Conservative election victory has removed – or at least postponed – some immediate concerns related to Brexit, which has dropped from being the major concern to second place, cited as a top concern by 38%, well behind the persistent worries over competitor pricing (61%). Access to skilled labour was third at 26%, followed by late payment (23%), though the labour issue may now rise as a result of the government’s recent announcement about its proposed post-Brexit immigration restrictions which could potentially affect seasonal and other labour requirements for printers. Pricing worries for paper and board have taken a back seat for now, with only 17% seeing them as the most pressing issue.

The BPIF’s ‘Brexit barometer’, introduced three years ago before the Article 50 notification was given, records a net negative score of -3 but this is a dramatic improvement on the previous quarter when it was at -50. Key concerns here are maintaining a secure supply chain (75%), followed more distantly by general cost inflation (40%) and non-tariff barriers (39%). Again, recent government announcements seem unlikely to assuage worries about the latter, given the Prime Minister’s insistence on diverging from EU rules.

BPIF economist Kyle Jardine commented, ‘So far sentiment surrounding Brexit has been largely negative and we have largely reported on concerns rather than opportunities. This focus has helped highlight concerns and issues and has fed into lobbying and representation activities – and increasing awareness within the industry. However, as we now move into the transition period and Brexit sentiment becomes less negative, and perhaps positive, we will be having a closer look at the opportunities that could become available.’

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